Once upon a time, Donald Trump was a staunch opponent of the crypto industry and digital currencies. Although the fear Trump instilled in the hearts of the industry’s supporters in 2019 was considered a discouraging moment in the history of this industry, his sudden shift and firm support of the cryptocurrency industry in recent days has reignited hope for many. But can this change truly benefit the crypto industry? Or is there something else behind this level of support?
Table of Contents
There are no clear advocates for Bitcoin (BTC) in America these days other than Donald Trump. His unprecedented and somewhat bizarre support for the crypto industry and Bitcoin has become a beacon of hope for millions of holders. Perhaps the most important reason is that the best days for digital currencies came during Trump’s presidency, with Bitcoin experiencing a 100-fold growth (from around $600 to $60,000). Therefore, if Trump’s economic policies happen to favor the crypto market, then the best choice for the millions of digital currency supporters in the United States would be Donald Trump.
However, contradictions in Trump’s pre-election claims and post-election approaches suggest that determining whether his rise to power would be a positive for the crypto industry requires further investigation.
An important point that many of Trump’s supporters do not consider is that the COVID-19 pandemic emerged during his presidency. History has shown that during pandemics, such as the Antonine Plague and the Justinianic Plague, or economic crises, like the 1929 Great Depression and the 2008 financial crisis, people have turned to alternative economic solutions, including risky investments, gambling, and more, in order to escape poverty and hunger. For this reason, Bitcoin’s 100-fold price increase wasn’t necessarily due to the U.S. economic policies under Trump’s presidency.
2017 Election
During the 2017 election campaign, in addition to implicit support for Bitcoin, Trump issued an order to produce a digital currency named “TrumpCoin” to raise funds for his election campaign. This action, which caused quite a stir at the time, was never implemented, and the project was later dismissed as a rumor created by his supporters.
However, after winning the election, Trump did not mention digital currencies until 2019, and during this time, his administration was more focused on economic and political matters, showing no clear stance on digital currencies.
Famous Tweet of 2019
In July 2019, when Bitcoin had been struggling for over a year with the $10,000 resistance and entered the $12,000 to $13,000 range, Donald Trump tweeted:
“I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated crypto assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity….”
Although this tweet caused a small shock to the cryptocurrency market at the time, contributing to a longer bearish trend for several months, in practice, as Jeremy Allaire, the founder of Circle Financial Services, said, Trump’s attack on the digital currency market was actually the biggest buy signal for the market. Perhaps this tweet was a bit early for such a nascent market, but for industry supporters, it was quite exciting because it marked the first time the government took notice of the extreme price volatility of crypto.
Although many believed there was no deep or complex thinking behind Trump’s tweets and that they should not be interpreted, Preston Byrne, one of Trump’s lawyers, argued that these messages seemed to be issued under orders from the U.S. Treasury Department to protect the power of the banks.
A few days later, on July 15, 2019, Steven Terner Mnuchin, the U.S. Treasury Secretary at the time, said in a press conference: “Cryptocurrencies pose a national security threat.”
However, Steven himself had earlier that day stated that Bitcoin could be a suitable alternative to gold.
Behind-the-Scenes Mischief
Although after July 15, Trump did not officially mention Bitcoin again until the end of his presidency, behind-the-scenes anti-crypto activities continued.
The first such incident occurred on January 11, 2022, when Mnuchin filed a case about Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, regarding the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and said that the development of a national digital currency was on the White House agenda.
Later, in the final days of Trump’s presidency, news spread of an order requiring mandatory identification of all cryptocurrency wallets by Mnuchin. According to this order, all crypto companies were required to complete and submit the identification details of all their users before conducting any transactions.
Thus, it appears that Mnuchin was one of the first crypto opponents in Trump’s cabinet; however, the truth is more complicated than it seems. Long before the Twitter incident and the introduction of the mandatory identification law in 2018, Trump had instructed Mnuchin: “Instead of negotiating with countries like China, pay attention to Bitcoin transactions and potential violations!”
Trump did not mention crypto or the digital currency market again until the end of his presidency, so determining how familiar he was with the nature of digital currencies was not possible.
In 2021, during the height of the cryptocurrency market’s bull run, Trump stated in an interview with FOX Business that crypto was heading for a “big disaster” and that digital currencies were essentially fraudulent and unreliable.
As we saw, it didn’t take long for Trump’s prediction to come true, and the digital currency market underwent a massive downward trend for over a year. Many digital currencies lost more than a tenth of their peak value within a year.
Trump also mentioned in another interview with FOX Business that Bitcoin was a scam and that the U.S. dollar should dominate the world.
In light of these statements, it became clear that Donald Trump had no understanding of digital currencies or blockchain technology during his entire presidency.
In late December 2021, an interesting development occurred: Melania Trump, Donald Trump’s wife, launched an NFT collection on the Solana network called “Melania’s Vision.” A few days later, Trump gave another interview with FOX Business and said: “I have never been interested in crypto because I prefer to have dollars, and cryptocurrency wants to replace the dollar, so I have never been a fan of it, and I think this industry is dangerous.”
Unexpected Shift
A few months later, in May 2022, Donald Trump tweeted: “I have a very positive outlook on cryptocurrency companies and this new and growing industry. Our country should be a leader in this area. Joe Biden, the useless and worst president in U.S. history, wants to gradually choke and destroy it, something that will never happen under me.”
However, there seems to be a suspicious detail behind this sudden shift. Just a few days before this tweet, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had doubled its crypto-related enforcement actions. The SEC, which has positioned itself as one of the primary cryptocurrency regulators in the U.S. since 2013, is undoubtedly one of the most influential organizations affecting the course of this industry.
Fundamental Actions
At the end of 2022, Trump launched his first NFT collection and began staking Ethereum (ETH) cryptocurrency. In addition to Ethereum, on-chain data indicates that as of the time of writing, the number of different digital currencies held by Trump has reached eight, and his NFT collections have reached four.
Most of Trump’s crypto holdings are in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a total value of $3 million in September 2024.
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are unique, non-exchangeable, cryptographically secured tokens that are like human fingerprints—distinct. Unlike well-known cryptocurrencies, NFTs do not have the same value as similar tokens within a network and are mostly used to indicate ownership of a digital asset or commodity.
For example, all Bitcoin coins have equal value, but each NFT of Bored Ape tokens has a different price depending on the owner’s valuation and other factors.
What is somewhat clear is that Trump’s cryptocurrency wallet and portfolio, along with his NFT collections, represent an indirect effort to draw the attention of the crypto community to the only candidate supporting digital currencies and nothing more. On the other hand, a significant portion of the financial support donated to Trump for the 2024 election comes in the form of cryptocurrency, which can also be seen as one of the objectives of his campaign, achieved thanks to social networks and a large number of followers. Based on this evidence, the reasons for Trump’s support of crypto so far may have become clear.
According to a poll conducted in May, more than two-thirds of Americans do not care about digital assets, and whether they are regulated or not makes no difference to the majority of society. Therefore, the crypto issue is unlikely to have much impact on the upcoming U.S. elections. This means the blockchain industry is still in its immature phase and has not yet integrated into mainstream culture.
In a fight, if your opponent doesn’t use a tool or weapon, it would be foolish not to use it yourself. The Democratic Party has not paid attention to at least 21% of the crypto-supporter population. So, in such an environment, Trump, by merely saying a few brief words about Bitcoin, can attract millions of dollars in crypto donations and, of course, keep an eye on the votes of this segment of society.
Crypto Donations to Trump’s Campaign
It seems that Trump is very skilled at riding the waves of turmoil. He was able to attract significant financial and supportive donations to his campaign by riding the wave among crypto supporters. Some of these million-dollar donations include:
1. A $1 million cryptocurrency donation in Ethereum from Jesse Powell, co-founder of the major exchange Kraken.
2. Bitcoin and Ethereum donations worth $2.5 million from the Winklevoss twins, founders of the Gemini investment firm.
3. A speech by Ryan Selkis, the founder of the blockchain company Messari, at a conference in front of Trump about digital currencies and the crypto industry in support of Trump.
Ryan Selkis Resignation
A curious detail that can be observed around Trump’s actions is that before or after every event, there seems to be an ongoing game or event behind the scenes. Just like the SEC incident, this time, Ryan Selkis, CEO of Messari, after giving a speech for Trump, resigned from his position as CEO, citing his political and provocative tweet posts as the reason for the crisis within the company after his political tweets.
Warnings from Prominent Figures
Arthur Hayes, a famous entrepreneur, stated in a blog: “I’m really scared that many blockchain professionals are blindly donating huge sums of money to Trump’s campaign. Of course, experts in this field should know better, but they are gravely mistaken if they think Trump is being sincere. If they donated a specific amount of money instead of these massive transactions, this absurd show of crypto donations would end once and for all. Trump is a shrewd politician and knows exactly what to say to whom to get re-elected. Once he returns to the presidency, crypto will become a distant memory. If the Democratic Party and Joe Biden were crypto supporters, Trump would become anti-crypto. This is really good politics.”
In July 2024, Vitalik Buterin, the creator of Ethereum, warned about governments’ claims that they fully understand the nature of crypto and said: “Don’t choose your vote just because a candidate supports crypto. Just because a candidate talks about crypto does not mean it is a good reason to vote for them.”
What Impact Will Trump’s Victory Have on the Digital Currency Market?
The cryptocurrency market has responded positively to Trump’s victory in the 2016 elections, his anti-crypto statements in 2019, and his recent failed assassination attempt. So, it seems that the crypto industry is interested in Trump. Therefore, it is highly likely that his victory in the upcoming election will result in the appearance of a green candle on the Bitcoin price chart.
However, to understand what long-term effects Trump’s presidency would have on the crypto industry, we need to see who will play key roles in his cabinet.
One of these individuals is Senator James David Vance (JD Vance), a politician, businessman, and investor, who is currently serving as the deputy campaign manager for Trump’s election campaign.
Reports suggest that in 2022, he invested between $100,000 to $250,000 in Bitcoin and is publicly considered one of the crypto industry supporters in Trump’s cabinet. Of course, it must be noted that until Trump gives Vance a green light, his support will be completely limited.
Who Will Be in Charge of the Treasury Department?
Trump recently told Bloomberg that he plans to appoint Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, who is a staunch opponent of Bitcoin, as the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury. A few months ago, Dimon called Bitcoin a fraud and a Ponzi scheme, saying it was a waste of time and served no purpose. Worse yet, the CEO of JPMorgan claimed that if he ever enters the government, he would shut down Bitcoin.
Soon after, Trump retracted his statement and said, “I don’t know who said Jamie Dimon is going to be the Secretary of the Treasury. I haven’t even thought about it yet!”
Who Will Head the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)?
Certainly, all crypto industry activists and supporters, even outside the United States, are eager to know who will be the head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after Trump’s victory in the election.
According to Reuters, Trump has stated that just one hour after entering the White House, he will launch a big war against crypto. Although it is unclear how he will do this, the selection of likely individuals who will play roles at the SEC will clarify the general policy direction of Trump’s administration.
Since the SEC has always played the role of the biggest enemy of crypto, it is unlikely that we will know the makeup of this agency before the election. The only possibility seems to be that the current SEC Chairman, Gary Gensler, will resign from his position if Trump wins the election.
July 27 Conference
The Bitcoin Conference 2024, held in Nashville from July 25 to 27, was one of the major events on the cryptocurrency calendar. This conference featured prominent speakers such as Donald Trump, Senator Cynthia Lummis, and politician Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
At this conference, Donald Trump presented logical views on the pros and cons of the industry. He pointed to the importance of blockchain technology, calling it a significant innovation in the world of economics. He also emphasized the need for appropriate regulations in this sector to ensure investor asset security and prevent fraud. On the other hand, Trump expressed concerns about the negative impacts of cryptocurrencies on the economy and national security, which seem not entirely illogical, even from the perspective of industry supporters.
It can be said that the conference did not have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market, as the market did not experience any specific trend from the days leading up to the conference until its conclusion. However, unexpectedly, just a day or two after the event, the market experienced a sharp 30% drop, and Bitcoin fell from around $68,000 to under $50,000. Some experts believe this drop was unrelated to the conference and that the market was simply following its long-term technical trend. Regardless, the fact remains that the drop after the conference has been recorded in the experiences of this immature market.
Bitcoin’s Absence in the Final Debate Between Harris and Trump
After the controversial debate on September 26, 2024, between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for the election following Biden’s withdrawal, Trump’s chances of winning decreased by about three percent, which somewhat disheartened crypto supporters. On the other hand, since there was no specific mention of the crypto industry in this debate, the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets experienced a downturn for a while.
Although no negative remarks about cryptocurrencies were heard during the debate, what is always observed is this market’s focus on global political, economic, and social issues. The impact of any event is directly visible in the market of this industry. Therefore, the outcomes and final results of the upcoming U.S. elections will have a direct impact on the cryptocurrency market.
If Trump wins, we will likely witness a price surge in the cryptocurrency market driven by excitement. However, what matters is the long-term impact of the U.S. government and SEC’s general policies.
Final Thoughts
One of the big rumors currently circulating is that the United States plans to consider Bitcoin as part of its strategic reserve. However, it is clear that Trump is against anything that undermines the U.S. dollar. Therefore, if changes are made to the U.S. Constitution in favor of the crypto industry, there will be laws that allow the U.S. government to harness the high potential of this technology for its own benefit. So, we should not expect Trump’s rise to power to have a direct impact on holders in the U.S. or around the world.
If we look at the overall policies of global superpowers logically, we can easily understand that no government will take steps against the national currency of its own country. Therefore, the biggest service governments can offer to the crypto industry is legislation, protecting users’ assets and ultimately helping them to be better and more correctly recognized among the general public.
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